AGP Executive Report

Housing & Credit Cooling: First home buyers are stepping back and overall demand is slumping as Australia’s housing market enters a downturn, with loan activity and first-timer applications down and buyers facing higher-rate affordability pressure. Property Market Divergence: A new “thermometer” approach says the market is fragmented, with Adelaide showing the strongest momentum while Perth and Queensland trail, pushing investors to focus on suburb-level signals. Crypto Infrastructure & Risk: A report says the US drove about 95.8% of global Bitcoin ATM losses in H1 2026, while Australia saw a notable contraction outside North America. Markets & Rates Mood: Global shares rebounded as US jobs data eased rate-hike fears, lifting the ASX and supporting a firmer risk tone. AI & Governance Tension: NSW staff emails reportedly show “absolutely thrilled” wording about OpenAI being removed after jokes about a Skynet-style future. Defence Industry Funding: Australia’s Defence Industry Development Grants handed out $22m-plus to 60 businesses, backing capabilities from submarines and aerospace to cyber and robotics. Mining & Drilling Updates: Alien Metals’ JV partner plans drilling at Western Australia copper-gold targets, while Vault Minerals resumes underground development at its Sugar Zone mine after a long pause. Superannuation & Banking Oversight: KPMG’s governance shake-up continues, including scrutiny of leadership independence and board changes tied to Australia’s banking and super regulator landscape.

Superannuation Returns: AusSuper says it delivered 9.77% for 2025-26, with listed equities driving performance as it leans further into US and offshore shares. Markets & Rates: A softer US jobs read is cooling Fed hike expectations, helping gold and lifting risk sentiment in Asia while the Aussie dollar steadies. Banking & Regulation: KPMG partner and former Labor MP David Bradbury has been appointed deputy chair of Australia’s banking and super regulator, APRA. Property & Wealth: New research finds 53% of Australians don’t expect to pass property wealth to kids, as negative gearing, CGT discount changes and SMSF borrowing limits loom. Office Deals: Kara Capital advised a Japanese consortium buying a 50% stake in Sydney’s World Square for $454m at a reported 7.5% cap rate. Data Centres: NextDC’s planned “Stargate” S7 in Eastern Creek targets 612MW, with OpenAI flagged as a potential customer. Energy & Exports: Australia forecasts a $38b export income lift from higher commodity and LNG prices tied to the Iran shock. Risk Watch: NSW reports a suspected H5 bird flu case near Hawks Nest, with surveillance ramped up and human risk said to be low.

Wealth Divide: UBS research says Australia’s median personal wealth fell nearly 7% since 2020, even as the average rose—highlighting widening gaps between the richest and everyone else. Banking & Markets: ASX sentiment stayed tied to bank moves and gold strength amid tech-led global sell-offs, with investors watching US jobs data and oil price swings. Housing Pressure: Multiple reports point to continued strain in Australia’s property market, with home values slipping and confidence softening as higher rates bite. Super & Retirement: Payday super changes are now in focus, alongside warnings that retirement savings can be wiped out by costly mistakes. Regulation & Compliance: ASIC action hit Capital Guard over fake bond sales, while Australia also moves to tighten rules around cash distribution services and other financial misconduct. Energy Finance: Victoria fast-tracked 1.64GW of battery storage approvals, while gas producers eye a potential $18bn LNG revenue jump and renewed calls for export tax. Payments & Fintech: LemFi expands into wealthtech after acquiring Wealth8, and crypto transfer rules tighten identity checks.

Perpetual takeover watch: Perpetual has rejected an unsolicited EQT-linked bid via Windflower Pte Limited of $21.64/share (about $2.5b), saying the highly conditional offer doesn’t fairly value the wealth manager after a turbulent restructure. Gold miner reset: Northern Star Resources appointed Glencore executive Suresh Vadnagra as managing director/CEO from October, as activist Elliott presses for board renewal and better disclosure amid project delivery criticism. Housing finance pressure: Industry groups warn proposed changes to SMSF treatment in new housing could reduce residential supply by cutting private capital, with developers and lenders flagging funding risks. Aged care policy tweak: The government has partially backed down on the Integrated Assessment Tool, adding more human input in limited complex cases after backlash. Energy & renewables: Investor groups welcomed tighter limits on retrospective CGT for renewables asset sales but warned renewables pipeline risk remains without stronger grandfathering/transition. EV logistics: Woolworths will lease 148 electric delivery trucks (supported by Clean Energy Finance Corporation funding) to expand greener grocery deliveries across NSW/VIC and beyond. Insurance & consumer disputes: A strata-broker code compliance review found governance and conflict-management failings, with referrals to ASIC.

AI and jobs: A new report says some firms that cut roles expecting AI to replace workers are now rehiring after automation struggled in real conditions, including a Commonwealth Bank customer service system that couldn’t handle call volumes. Banking and markets: Perpetual rejected EQT’s A$1.69b takeover offer as undervalued, sending its shares up nearly 17% before a trading halt. Housing and mortgages: New research highlights Australians’ “super-sized” home loans and rising interest burdens even as dwelling values fall, with KPMG pointing to near-record income share going to interest. Property rules: Major new rules for buyers, sellers and renters kick in from July 1, adding to the pressure on the market. Superannuation compliance: PayDay Super starts today, requiring super contributions to be paid with wages and reaching funds within seven business days. Data centres and inflation risk: Transport for NSW and the RBA warn datacentres could compete for scarce industrial land, pushing up costs and crowding out housing. Fintech and payments: PayID adoption keeps growing among Australian payments players as digital habits shift. Corporate finance: Btab provided a merger update and set out its long-term purpose ahead of its next growth stage. Energy finance: Vena Energy secured new funding for solar-plus-storage assets, backing grid reliability as renewables scale.

Big Four Privacy Shock: Treasurer Jim Chalmers called reports of alleged access to PM Anthony Albanese’s bank data “incredibly concerning” after EY sacked and charged two employees over alleged Commonwealth Bank security breach. Housing & Tax Pressure: New data shows home prices fell sharply in June, with tax changes hitting investor confidence and adding to the housing downturn. NDIS Reform Fight: Independents Helen Haines and Monique Ryan tabled amendments to protect “activities of daily living” funding and demand more transparency in the NDIS bill. Mortgage Broking Demand: MFAA says enquiries via its Find a Broker platform jumped after a 2026 campaign, as most new home loans are broker-arranged. Market Watch: ASX futures point to a slightly higher open as investors weigh building approvals and global growth signals. Copper Leadership Move: BOA Resources appointed geologist Graeme Purcell as managing director to drive drilling across its expanded WA copper portfolio. Regional Community Grants: ANZ opened applications for its Seeds of Renewal program, offering up to $15,000 for rural and regional not-for-profits. AI Habits Snapshot: Ipsos data says 8+ million Australians use AI services monthly, up around 38% year-on-year.

Housing & Rates: Australian home prices posted their steepest June fall in 3½ years, down 0.4% nationally, with Sydney and Melbourne leading the slide as higher borrowing costs and federal property tax changes bite. Market Impact: The downturn is also showing up in affordability and sentiment, with housing credit growth expected to slow as the RBA flags further pressure. Banking Regulation: A major legal fight over currency manipulation hit a snag at the Constitutional Court level, with some banks (including ANZ) not getting the appeal they sought. Fintech & Markets: Webull’s push continues with an expansion of its regulated platform access for Canadian investors. AI & Marketing: Enfection opened in Melbourne, running workshops aimed at practical AI marketing “operating system” adoption for Australian businesses. Energy Transition: Renewables in agriculture are getting a spotlight at a sold-out NSW conference, with farmers sharing solar, storage and on-farm income models. Critical Minerals: The US Army is moving to build and run critical mineral processing on military sites, with Australian firm Ioneer named for boron processing.

RBA Signals Rates Still Biting: Minutes from the June 17 meeting show the cash rate held at 4.35% as the board judged earlier hikes are starting to work, with housing demand easing and credit growth expected to slow, but it warned policy must stay restrictive while inflation risks linger. Super & Payday Rules: From July 1, employers must pay super monthly (“payday super”), tightening compliance and making missed payments easier to spot. Retirement Cost Pressure: A new “comfortable retirement” benchmark is now $80,000 a year for couples, with government moves aimed at helping Australians plan better for the retirement phase. Financial Crime & Privacy: Ernst & Young staff were charged over alleged unauthorised access to the PM’s bank details, adding to scrutiny of bank data security and professional access controls. Housing & Property Integrity: New property transaction checks are set to strengthen source-of-funds scrutiny, targeting money-laundering risks in real estate deals. Fintech Growth: Airwallex raised $320m, lifting its valuation to $11b as it pushes AI-based financial software and regulated market expansion. Markets Watch: ASX futures pointed to a firmer open as investors digest RBA minutes and await credit data for more rate-path clues.

Cross-border payments: J.P. Morgan expanded its Kinexys blockchain settlement platform to add the Australian dollar, Hong Kong dollar, yen, renminbi and Singapore dollar, giving institutional clients 8 supported currencies and 24/7 settlement to cut global banking-hour delays. AI infrastructure: Australia’s Firmus Technologies signed an eight-year Nvidia deal to build a 360MW AI data centre campus in Batam, Indonesia, targeting up to 170,000 Nvidia accelerators and forecasting $25b–$30b in committed offtake revenue over the first six years. Airport automation: Brisbane Airport trialled autonomous robot mowers across its 919-hectare airside land, aiming to cut diesel use by 60,000 litres a year and reduce vegetation-management costs by 70% while lowering herbicide and pesticide needs. Markets & inflation watch: Gold held above US$4,000 as traders weighed renewed Middle East tensions against the inflation outlook. Super & investing backdrop: A report says Australian super funds are still set for strong annual returns (up to 10%) despite ASX weakness, helped by offshore share gains. Policy changes July 1: Major household impacts are coming with tax cuts, a $1,000 instant deduction, and a 6% minimum wage rise to $26.44/hour. Air competition: Vietjet has applied to launch Australian domestic flights, challenging the long-running Qantas/Jetstar duopoly if approved. Small business tax pressure: Mortgage and finance brokers are backing the Fair Go campaign, warning proposed tax changes could hit small business owners’ retirement plans.

Pacific Security: Australia and Vanuatu signed the long-delayed Nakamal Agreement, with Australia to be consulted on third-party investment in Vanuatu’s critical infrastructure and remain its preferred security/policing partner, aiming to curb militarisation concerns. Sanctions Enforcement: Police and border agencies in Australia and New Zealand executed raids tied to suspected Russia Sanctions Act breaches, including searches in Auckland, Christchurch and Melbourne, plus a Christchurch restraining order. Markets & FX: The ASX is set to open slightly higher but traders are watching Middle East shipping risk and Wall Street weakness, with the US dollar on track for its biggest June gain in nearly a year ahead of jobs data. Super & Fees: Consumer advocates urged Australians to scrutinise superannuation statements for advice and ongoing fees, and to escalate complaints via APRA/AFCA if funds won’t fix issues. Fintech/Payments: PayID adoption is growing among ASX-listed payments and fintech firms, signalling faster movement away from traditional transfers. Health & Tech: 4DMedical won TGA approval for CT:VQ™ non-contrast ventilation-perfusion imaging, while NSW backed expanded ADHD assessment and care access with an $11.7m package.

NSW Shark Drone Expansion: NSW will add A$34m to expand year-round shark-spotting drone surveillance after a serious Coogee Beach attack, lifting the program to A$120m over two years, with ~70 beaches covered and AI shark-detection trials; officials say more sightings may reflect better detection, not more sharks. Mortgage Fraud Crackdown: Australia’s financial-crimes body is building a broker portal to track mortgage brokers flagged for dodgy conduct, aiming to curb fraudulent home-loan applications as banks and the tax office ramp up scrutiny. One Nation Funding Review: The AEC is examining more than $800,000 of One Nation election spending claims, with the party withdrawing over 140 items after inquiries and facing potential breaches tied to supplier reimbursements. Housing Market Pressure: Auction activity in Sydney and Melbourne hit weak levels, with clearance rates sliding and sellers rethinking plans amid persistently soft results. Firmus x Nvidia AI Compute Deal: Australian AI infrastructure firm Firmus Technologies signed a partnership with Nvidia to sell Nvidia-powered cloud services and deliver 170,000 GPUs from Q1 2027–early 2028 in Indonesia, targeting smaller AI firms with lower-cost access.

Middle East Risk to Infrastructure Investing: Macquarie has withdrawn from bidding for a Kuwait oil pipeline stake worth up to $7bn, citing the Iran-war fallout and a more uncertain Gulf outlook. Property Tax Fixes: Treasurer Jim Chalmers says Labor will “fix” the “widow’s tax” loophole affecting jointly owned investment properties, with details to come in follow-up legislation. Housing Market Pressure: New home price data is expected to reflect how negative gearing and CGT changes are hitting demand, with analysts pointing to further falls in major cities. Superannuation Reality Check: Australians are getting conflicting retirement savings targets, with estimates ranging from about $322k to over $1m depending on the model used. Markets at EOFY: ASX futures point to a modest rise as investors weigh end-of-financial-year positioning against Middle East and tech-driven volatility. NSW Shark Drone Scale-Up: NSW will spend an extra $34m to expand AI-enabled shark-spotting drones year-round from 1 July, boosting “shark mitigation” investment to $120m over two years. NRL Money Boost: A reported $5bn NRL TV deal from 2028 could lift the salary cap and player earnings, with off-contract stars potentially seeing major pay jumps. Crypto/Regulation: ASIC has extended no-action relief for crypto licensing, giving firms more time to transition. Streaming Crackdown: The US seized nearly 400 domains used for illegal World Cup streaming, warning of malware and data risks.

Digital Safety Crackdown: Australia will double maximum fines for platforms that flout the under-16 social media ban, lifting penalties to A$99m and expanding eSafety enforcement as regulators investigate major tech for ongoing underage access. Markets & Macro: AMP’s Shane Oliver flags a week of weaker global shares as tech sells off on AI-bubble worries, with Australia’s ASX 200 down for the week and pressure on oil, gold and Bitcoin amid a firmer US dollar and renewed rate-hike expectations. Central Banking Gold Rush: A new analysis highlights central banks’ record gold buying—now at the highest since 1975—as reserves demand and inflation hedging drive bullion interest. Payments & Fintech: Coverage notes PayID adoption is growing among ASX-listed fintech and payments firms, pointing to faster movement away from traditional transfers. Housing & Lending: A report spotlights how an offset mortgage helped a first-home buyer clear debt early, while broader commentary continues on mortgage stress and the cooling property cycle.

Housing & Tax: Australia’s housing downturn is softening prices and clearance rates, but the risk is uneven outcomes—first-home buyer areas look most exposed after the 5% deposit scheme expanded and thresholds changed. Household Costs: Inflation eased to 4% in May, yet underlying inflation stayed sticky, keeping pressure on rates; the ATO also urged millions not to rush tax returns. Payments & Fintech: PayID adoption keeps climbing, with ASX-listed fintechs building products around the New Payments Platform rails as legacy systems face sunset pressure. Super & Retirement: New guidance continues to frame how much super you need depends on retirement lifestyle and whether you rely on the Age Pension. Regulation & Crypto: ASIC extended a crypto licensing no-action period to September 30, while regulators continue tightening the perimeter around car finance and other consumer lending. Corporate & Governance: KPMG remains in the spotlight after allegations tied to confidential information and ethics/leadership training contracts with government. Global Capital Flows: Big investors are committing over $90bn to India, including Amazon’s $48bn plan and AirTrunk’s $30bn data-centre push—another signal of where growth money is heading.

Markets & Rates: Gold and silver pushed higher as the US dollar eased on doubts the Fed will hike soon, with UBS flagging a potential gold rally if inflation moderates. ASX & Investing Mood: Australia’s “stagflation” talk is back, with investors weighing which sectors could hold up if growth slows while prices stay sticky. Big Business (Resources): BHP announced a leadership reshuffle ahead of incoming CEO Brandon Craig, including splitting its Americas president role into North and South America. Banking/Payments: PayID growth shows Australians moving faster than traditional bank transfers, while the crypto licensing no-action period was extended to September 30. Property & Housing: New tax changes from July 1 are set to reshape property investors’ outlook, with debate continuing over CGT and negative gearing impacts. Climate Finance Scrutiny: Australia withheld internal climate fund papers tied to Tuvalu’s trust fund investments, drawing fresh questions about fossil-fuel exposure. Trade/Industry: Korea Zinc and the Albanese government discussed critical minerals cooperation to strengthen supply chains and smelting competitiveness. Corporate Tech: Insight Works expanded its Microsoft Business Central reseller network with 10 new partners across multiple regions.

ASIC Enforcement: ASIC has sued directors of the failed $530m Shield Master Fund, alleging inadequate safeguards and improper risk-taking tied to the collapsed scheme that hit thousands of investors. Banking & Markets: ASX sentiment stayed fragile as Judo Bank shares plunged after loan-loss guidance, while brokers renewed buy calls on parts of the market; meanwhile, fund managers flagged valuation and housing-tax uncertainty behind underweight positions in major banks. Housing Tax Reform: Negative gearing and capital gains tax changes passed parliament, with Treasurer Jim Chalmers defending the reforms after criticism from former RBA governor Philip Lowe. Fintech & Payments: Airwallex’s valuation jumped to about $US11b after a funding round, even as it faces heightened scrutiny over financial-crimes controls; Zeller also launched a new cloud POS for SMEs. Super & Consumer Finance: Australians face multiple money changes from July 1, and regulators continue to push for safer lending and scam awareness. Energy & Inflation Link: Strait of Hormuz shipping risks are back in focus, with analysts warning oil supply shocks could prolong Australia’s inflation fight. Health & Research Funding: Recce Pharmaceuticals raised $4m for licensing and Phase 3 diabetic foot infection trials, while WA Country Health began a sponsored regional clinical trial.